Presenter

We take it as read, don't we, that after years of decline, cinema in this country has been undergoing a revival, thanks largely to the irresistible rise of the multiplex. They're springing up everywhere and we can't get enough of them. Well perhaps not. There's a warning that the first of the out-of-town multiplexes could soon be closing. Audience figures are beginning to stagnate. The first American-style multi-screen centre was built here as recently as 1985 but as Angus Crawford [AC] reports, the industry is preparing for the unthinkable.

background sounds [bs]

The effect that we've got here is like walking into a Hollywood sound stage. You walk in...

AC

The 'Star City Megaplex' in Birmingham with 30 screens and 6,000 seats, it's the biggest cinema the UK has ever seen.

bs

...21 Da Khan, an Asian movie, 22 Mission Impossible. ..

AC

Open since July, it's the focal point of a huge shopping development in the shadow of Spaghetti Junction. Its general manager is Andy Stern.

bs

..26 Shanghai Noon, 27 another Prince of X men...

AC

This development cost £25 million. You've got to get something like 4,000 punters through the doors every day. Are you really going to be able to do that to break even?

Andy Stern [AS]

If you came here on a Friday, Saturday, Sunday we're doing thousands upon thousands of people. We've been known to achieve 20,000 people in just 3 days trade.

AC

Impressive it may be but there are those who have their doubts about the project.

Graham Young [GY]

You're looking at, I think, within 18 months the fact that within an hour, certainly of where I'm sitting today in the heart of town, you could have a choice of one of 60,000 cinema seats in about 260 screens, which is quite phenomenal.

AC

Veteran cinema critic for the Birmingham Mail, Graham Young, points out a huge programme of cinema building can only be sustained if film makers come up with the goods.

GY

Demand for cinema seats, I think, depends entirely on what Hollywood makes. If they make the films, I'm sure that those seats will be very well used. If they don't make the films, and the industry does go in cycles of peaks and troughs, then you may well see cannibalisation within the whole of this new multiplex industry.

Mary Scott [MS]

No 1 is Toy Story II with £43.5 million.

AC

Some analysts though believe deeper structural faults are at the heart of the problem.

MS

In 1997 it was expected that admissions might reach 200 million in the UK by the year 2000 and by the end of the year we'll be lucky if we get to 140 million.

AC

Box office watcher from film paper Screen International, Mary Scott, believes the big companies have failed to heed the warning signs.

MS

When the multiplex trend was at its height, all the exhibitors thought, if you build they will come and it's only in the last three years that in fact audiences haven't been growing at the rate that we saw during the 90's and certainly in the next 12 months the first multiplex will close.

Steve Weiner [SW]

Well, it's extremely comfortable. It has a high back on it so you have good support...

AC

Relaxing into one of his company's customised seats, Steve Wiener, the boss of multiplex newcomer Cine UK, contemplates the future. There are, he says, bound to be casualties.

SW

I've been here for 9 years now [SW has a US accent] and no, it has never been this competitive before and I guess to describe it in one word, it's scary. People coming into the marketplace, they don't fully understand the market. We have other cinema operators that, because of declining attendance at some of their facilities, have made some decisions that were not rational.

AC

At what point do you think we are going to find multiplexes actually closing? Is that going to happen? What do you think?

SW

It's inevitable.

AC

Others don't see it quite that way. Mike Thompson is commercial director of UGC cinemas which bought out Virgin to secure 13% of the market. Those who adapt, he believes, will survive.

Mike Thompson [MT]

We're opening our fourth one this year, in a months time, in Enfield,and we've got four more next year and we're continuing to look to grow at that rate.

bs

This is into its second month of showing now.

AC

Birmingham's 'Star City' could prove a crucial litmus test. If it pulls in the crowds other screens nearby may suffer. If on the other hand the audiences fail to come, it may end up giving the UK industry a £25 million cautionary tale.

presenter

Angus Crawford's report.......